Monthly summary for OTC From 1/30/1963 to 1/13/2009 The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle. Monthly returns Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Totals 1963-3 0.0% -0.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% -1.5% 2.0% -3.2% 3.2% 15.3% 1964-4 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 3.7% 1.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 23.1% 1965-1 7.5% 1.4% -0.1% 6.6% -3.2% -9.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.1% 1.5% 1.7% 30.1% 1966-2 3.8% 1.9% -3.6% 3.9% -4.0% -1.2% -0.9% -9.9% -0.7% 2.1% 4.4% 2.3% -1.5% 1967-3 9.1% 4.0% 7.2% 4.6% 1.8% 5.1% 4.0% 0.2% 3.0% -2.1% 3.1% 1.5% 54.0% 1968-4 -1.9% -1.3% -0.1% 10.9% 5.4% 0.4% -1.9% 2.7% 1.3% -2.0% 3.8% -0.1% 20.6% 1969-1 -2.3% -6.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% -7.4% -8.0% 4.8% 3.2% 11.2% 0.1% -1.6% -.8% Avg 3.26% -0.05% 0.78% 5.55% 0.00% -2.55% -0.65% 0.56% 2.20% 2.46% 2.58% 0.78% 20.49% 1970-2 -4.4% 4.3% -1.3% -18.9% -12.7% -2.0% 6.1% 1.0% 7.6% -1.8% 3.0% 4.2% -13.7% 1971-3 9.6% 3.1% 4.1% 5.6% -2.8% -1.0% -3.0% 2.7% 0.3% -4.1% 0.3% 7.8% 27.7% 1972-4 4.6% 4.9% 1.5% 2.6% 1.8% -2.3% -2.2% 1.2% -0.8% 0.7% 1.0% -0.2% 17.2% 1973-1 -4.1% -6.2% -1.7% -6.9% -4.9% -1.3% 8.5% -2.1% 5.4% -0.7% -14.7% 0.2% -31.1% 1974-2 2.6% 0.2% -1.9% -5.5% -8.5% -6.3% -7.2% -10.4% -8.6% 17.6% -3.2% -3.0% -35.1% Avg 1.66% 1.25% 0.12% -4.62% -5.42% -2.59% 0.46% -1.55% 0.80% 2.35% -2.73% 1.82% -7.01% 1975-3 15.0% 3.2% 2.5% 4.1% 4.8% 4.7% -3.6% -3.4% -4.6% 4.3% 2.8% -1.3% 29.8% 1976-4 11.5% 3.4% 0.4% -0.4% -1.1% 2.9% 1.1% -1.7% 0.7% -0.1% 0.2% 6.6% 26.1% 1977-1 -2.2% -1.8% -1.1% 1.0% -0.3% 4.0% 0.8% -0.7% 0.4% -3.6% 6.6% 1.3% 7.3% 1978-2 -3.0% -0.1% 4.7% 8.8% 3.7% 0.0% 5.1% 6.5% -1.8% -16.6% 0.0% 1.5% 12.3% 1979-3 6.8% -2.5% 6.8% 1.9% -1.8% 4.8% 3.2% 6.0% 1.0% -9.4% 5.7% 5.1% 28.1% Avg 5.60% 0.44% 2.66% 3.08% 1.07% 3.28% 1.31% 1.34% -0.84% -5.08% 3.09% 2.64% 20.72% 1980-4 9.2% -2.6% -16.5% 5.1% 7.7% 5.1% 8.6% 5.2% 3.0% 1.7% 7.8% -1.4% 33.7% 1981-1 -2.8% 2.5% 5.6% 2.6% 3.1% -3.3% -1.4% -7.0% -7.8% 7.8% 2.1% -2.6% -3.0% 1982-2 -3.7% -4.0% -2.5% 4.2% -3.5% -3.4% -1.9% 5.5% 5.8% 12.7% 8.3% -1.3% 18.7% 1983-3 7.7% 5.0% 3.4% 9.1% 6.3% 3.5% -5.6% -3.2% 0.7% -6.8% 4.6% -2.6% 19.9% 1984-4 -3.3% -5.2% -1.1% -0.9% -7.0% 1.6% -3.5% 9.1% -0.6% -0.3% -2.2% 2.7% -11.2% Avg 1.42% -0.84% -2.21% 4.00% 1.33% 0.69% -0.74% 1.95% 0.24% 3.00% 4.12% -1.07% 11.59% 1985-1 13.3% 2.1% -2.8% 0.1% 4.0% 1.9% 1.6% -2.1% -5.5% 3.8% 6.7% 3.7% 31.1% 1986-2 3.3% 6.5% 4.2% 2.4% 4.8% 1.5% -8.9% 3.3% -7.7% 2.3% -0.4% -2.5% 7.5% 1987-3 11.8% 7.0% 1.4% -2.5% -0.5% 2.3% 2.5% 5.0% -1.8% -27.9% -7.1% 8.3% -5.3% 1988-4 1.8% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% -2.5% 5.3% -1.9% -3.0% 4.0% -0.5% -2.9% 2.0% 15.4% 1989-1 5.7% -0.9% 1.7% 4.9% 4.4% -2.9% 4.1% 3.5% 0.3% -4.1% -0.1% -0.5% 19.3% Avg 7.21% 4.14% 1.31% 1.38% 2.06% 1.64% -0.51% 1.37% -2.13% -5.28% -0.74% 2.18% 13.62% 1990-2 -9.5% 1.9% 1.9% -3.0% 8.8% 0.0% -5.2% -12.5% -9.7% -7.0% 8.6% 3.5% -17.8% 1991-3 11.3% 8.5% 5.6% 0.8% 3.7% -6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 1.1% 2.7% -3.1% 10.4% 56.8% 1992-4 5.8% 1.6% -5.0% -3.9% 1.2% -4.2% 2.1% -3.3% 3.1% 4.6% 7.4% 3.5% 15.5% 1993-1 3.7% -4.4% 3.1% -3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.1% -3.7% 1.7% 14.7% 1994-2 3.9% -0.6% -5.7% 0.9% -0.7% -4.0% 2.2% 5.6% 0.7% 2.2% -2.8% 1.6% -3.2% Avg 3.02% 1.40% -0.02% -1.78% 3.62% -2.88% 0.71% -0.20% -0.51% 0.93% 1.26% 4.14% 13.21% 1995-3 1.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 7.4% 7.1% 2.9% 2.4% 0.8% 1.8% -0.3% 39.9% 1996-4 0.1% 2.9% 1.4% 7.6% 3.6% -4.3% -9.8% 3.9% 7.4% 0.0% 5.8% -0.7% 22.7% 1997-1 7.7% -4.9% -6.8% 3.6% 10.2% 2.6% 10.8% -0.4% 4.2% -5.7% -1.8% -3.7% 21.6% 1998-2 2.4% 7.1% 4.4% 1.1% -5.0% 8.5% -2.2% -19.0% 7.5% 9.9% 8.3% 9.4% 39.6% 1999-3 13.5% -8.9% 7.2% 2.0% -2.6% 11.3% -2.5% 4.4% -0.2% 8.4% 12.4% 21.3% 85.6% Avg 5.06% 0.18% 1.88% 3.49% 1.79% 5.11% 0.70% -1.64% 4.26% 3.34% 5.29% 5.22% 41.89% 2000-4 -4.6% 15.9% -4.4% -8.6% -14.1% 10.7% -5.6% 14.1% -13.3% -5.6% -22.1% -6.6% -39.3% 2001-1 21.0% -22.7% -15.7% 18.7% -2.7% 0.5% -5.7% -12.7% -15.4% 14.2% 10.6% 2.4% -21.1% 2002-2 -2.3% -9.4% 2.4% -9.4% -3.7% -6.4% -5.4% 2.7% -7.3% 9.6% 8.7% -10.1% -31.5% 2003-3 -4.6% 1.0% 1.6% 8.6% 8.4% 2.0% 5.8% 5.5% -3.0% 5.5% -0.4% 0.7% 50.0% 2004-4 3.0% -1.6% -3.1% -4.7% 2.5% 2.9% -6.4% -2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 5.9% 1.7% 8.6% Avg 2.48% -3.35% -3.86% 0.93% -1.91% 1.95% -3.45% 1.36% -7.27% 5.06% 0.54% -2.37% -6.65% 2005-1 -4.2% -0.8% -3.5% -3.2% 7.2% -1.5% 6.2% -2.0% 0.2% -1.6% 5.6% -2.7% 1.4% 2006-2 2.8% -1.3% 1.1% -0.6% -5.5% -2.2% -4.5% 5.9% 3.0% 5.8% 4.2% 0.1% 9.5% 2007-3 1.7% -2.1% 0.7% 4.2% 2.9% -0.4% -3.3% 1.7% 2.7% 4.3% -4.8% 0.6% 9.8% 2008-4 -8.4% -5.9% 0.9% 2.1% 1.7% -8.0% 0.9% 2.4% -11.4% -16.8% -11.1% 12.8% -40.5% 2009-1 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% .0% Avg -0.93% -2.52% -0.19% 0.64% 1.59% -3.00% -0.17% 2.01% -1.37% -2.10% -1.51% 2.68% -4.96% Averages 3.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% -0.2% 0.6% -0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 12.4% Win% 67% 52% 61% 70% 57% 52% 50% 63% 61% 58% 65% 63% 71% Break down by presidential years Year 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Totals 1965-1 7.5% 1.4% -0.1% 6.6% -3.2% -9.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.1% 1.5% 1.7% 30.1% 1969-1 -2.3% -6.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% -7.4% -8.0% 4.8% 3.2% 11.2% 0.1% -1.6% -.8% 1973-1 -4.1% -6.2% -1.7% -6.9% -4.9% -1.3% 8.5% -2.1% 5.4% -0.7% -14.7% 0.2% -31.1% 1977-1 -2.2% -1.8% -1.1% 1.0% -0.3% 4.0% 0.8% -0.7% 0.4% -3.6% 6.6% 1.3% 7.3% 1981-1 -2.8% 2.5% 5.6% 2.6% 3.1% -3.3% -1.4% -7.0% -7.8% 7.8% 2.1% -2.6% -3.0% 1985-1 13.3% 2.1% -2.8% 0.1% 4.0% 1.9% 1.6% -2.1% -5.5% 3.8% 6.7% 3.7% 31.1% 1989-1 5.7% -0.9% 1.7% 4.9% 4.4% -2.9% 4.1% 3.5% 0.3% -4.1% -0.1% -0.5% 19.3% Avg 1.98% -0.86% 0.35% 0.33% 1.26% -0.30% 2.71% -1.65% -1.41% 0.64% 0.13% 0.42% 4.72% 1993-1 3.7% -4.4% 3.1% -3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.1% -3.7% 1.7% 14.7% 1997-1 7.7% -4.9% -6.8% 3.6% 10.2% 2.6% 10.8% -0.4% 4.2% -5.7% -1.8% -3.7% 21.6% 2001-1 21.0% -22.7% -15.7% 18.7% -2.7% 0.5% -5.7% -12.7% -15.4% 14.2% 10.6% 2.4% -21.1% 2005-1 -4.2% -0.8% -3.5% -3.2% 7.2% -1.5% 6.2% -2.0% 0.2% -1.6% 5.6% -2.7% 1.4% 2009-1 3.5% .0% Avg 6.34% -8.20% -5.73% 3.86% 4.97% 0.41% 2.88% -2.54% -2.19% 2.23% 2.65% -0.58% 4.18% Averages 3.9% -3.8% -1.9% 2.3% 2.1% -1.5% 1.9% -0.8% -0.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 6.3% Win% 58% 27% 36% 73% 64% 36% 73% 36% 73% 55% 64% 55% 64% Year 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Totals 1966-2 3.8% 1.9% -3.6% 3.9% -4.0% -1.2% -0.9% -9.9% -0.7% 2.1% 4.4% 2.3% -1.5% 1970-2 -4.4% 4.3% -1.3% -18.9% -12.7% -2.0% 6.1% 1.0% 7.6% -1.8% 3.0% 4.2% -13.7% 1974-2 2.6% 0.2% -1.9% -5.5% -8.5% -6.3% -7.2% -10.4% -8.6% 17.6% -3.2% -3.0% -35.1% 1978-2 -3.0% -0.1% 4.7% 8.8% 3.7% 0.0% 5.1% 6.5% -1.8% -16.6% 0.0% 1.5% 12.3% 1982-2 -3.7% -4.0% -2.5% 4.2% -3.5% -3.4% -1.9% 5.5% 5.8% 12.7% 8.3% -1.3% 18.7% 1986-2 3.3% 6.5% 4.2% 2.4% 4.8% 1.5% -8.9% 3.3% -7.7% 2.3% -0.4% -2.5% 7.5% Avg -1.04% 1.41% 0.62% -1.81% -3.23% -2.05% -1.35% 1.17% -0.92% 2.84% 1.52% -0.22% -2.07% 1990-2 -9.5% 1.9% 1.9% -3.0% 8.8% 0.0% -5.2% -12.5% -9.7% -7.0% 8.6% 3.5% -17.8% 1994-2 3.9% -0.6% -5.7% 0.9% -0.7% -4.0% 2.2% 5.6% 0.7% 2.2% -2.8% 1.6% -3.2% 1998-2 2.4% 7.1% 4.4% 1.1% -5.0% 8.5% -2.2% -19.0% 7.5% 9.9% 8.3% 9.4% 39.6% 2002-2 -2.3% -9.4% 2.4% -9.4% -3.7% -6.4% -5.4% 2.7% -7.3% 9.6% 8.7% -10.1% -31.5% 2006-2 2.8% -1.3% 1.1% -0.6% -5.5% -2.2% -4.5% 5.9% 3.0% 5.8% 4.2% 0.1% 9.5% Avg -0.55% -0.44% 0.81% -2.20% -1.23% -0.81% -3.02% -3.46% -1.16% 4.08% 5.38% 0.90% -0.68% Averages -0.4% 0.6% 0.3% -1.5% -2.4% -1.4% -2.1% -1.9% -1.0% 3.3% 3.5% 0.5% -1.4% Win% 55% 55% 55% 55% 27% 27% 27% 64% 45% 73% 73% 64% 45% Year 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Totals 1963-3 -0.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% -1.5% 2.0% -3.2% 3.2% 15.3% 1967-3 9.1% 4.0% 7.2% 4.6% 1.8% 5.1% 4.0% 0.2% 3.0% -2.1% 3.1% 1.5% 54.0% 1971-3 9.6% 3.1% 4.1% 5.6% -2.8% -1.0% -3.0% 2.7% 0.3% -4.1% 0.3% 7.8% 27.7% 1975-3 15.0% 3.2% 2.5% 4.1% 4.8% 4.7% -3.6% -3.4% -4.6% 4.3% 2.8% -1.3% 29.8% 1979-3 6.8% -2.5% 6.8% 1.9% -1.8% 4.8% 3.2% 6.0% 1.0% -9.4% 5.7% 5.1% 28.1% 1983-3 7.7% 5.0% 3.4% 9.1% 6.3% 3.5% -5.6% -3.2% 0.7% -6.8% 4.6% -2.6% 19.9% 1987-3 11.8% 7.0% 1.4% -2.5% -0.5% 2.3% 2.5% 5.0% -1.8% -27.9% -7.1% 8.3% -5.3% Avg 10.18% 3.16% 3.66% 3.64% 1.22% 2.88% -1.30% 1.42% -0.86% -8.78% 1.29% 3.44% 20.02% 1991-3 11.3% 8.5% 5.6% 0.8% 3.7% -6.1% 4.3% 4.3% 1.1% 2.7% -3.1% 10.4% 56.8% 1995-3 1.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 7.4% 7.1% 2.9% 2.4% 0.8% 1.8% -0.3% 39.9% 1999-3 13.5% -8.9% 7.2% 2.0% -2.6% 11.3% -2.5% 4.4% -0.2% 8.4% 12.4% 21.3% 85.6% 2003-3 -4.6% 1.0% 1.6% 8.6% 8.4% 2.0% 5.8% 5.5% -3.0% 5.5% -0.4% 0.7% 50.0% 2007-3 1.7% -2.1% 0.7% 4.2% 2.9% -0.4% -3.3% 1.7% 2.7% 4.3% -4.8% 0.6% 9.8% Avg 4.68% 0.64% 3.67% 3.76% 3.03% 2.84% 2.29% 3.76% 0.62% 4.34% 1.18% 6.55% 48.43% Averages 7.6% 1.9% 4.0% 3.8% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 2.6% 0.0% -1.9% 1.0% 4.6% 34.3% Win% 91% 67% 100% 92% 67% 75% 58% 83% 58% 58% 58% 75% 92% Year 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Totals 1964-4 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 3.7% 1.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 23.1% 1968-4 -1.9% -1.3% -0.1% 10.9% 5.4% 0.4% -1.9% 2.7% 1.3% -2.0% 3.8% -0.1% 20.6% 1972-4 4.6% 4.9% 1.5% 2.6% 1.8% -2.3% -2.2% 1.2% -0.8% 0.7% 1.0% -0.2% 17.2% 1976-4 11.5% 3.4% 0.4% -0.4% -1.1% 2.9% 1.1% -1.7% 0.7% -0.1% 0.2% 6.6% 26.1% 1980-4 9.2% -2.6% -16.5% 5.1% 7.7% 5.1% 8.6% 5.2% 3.0% 1.7% 7.8% -1.4% 33.7% 1984-4 -3.3% -5.2% -1.1% -0.9% -7.0% 1.6% -3.5% 9.1% -0.6% -0.3% -2.2% 2.7% -11.2% 1988-4 1.8% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% -2.5% 5.3% -1.9% -3.0% 4.0% -0.5% -2.9% 2.0% 15.4% Avg 4.76% 1.29% -2.74% 1.67% -0.21% 2.50% 0.45% 2.17% 1.25% 0.29% 0.79% 1.94% 16.22% 1992-4 5.8% 1.6% -5.0% -3.9% 1.2% -4.2% 2.1% -3.3% 3.1% 4.6% 7.4% 3.5% 15.5% 1996-4 0.1% 2.9% 1.4% 7.6% 3.6% -4.3% -9.8% 3.9% 7.4% 5.8% -0.7% 22.7% 2000-4 -4.6% 15.9% -4.4% -8.6% -14.1% 10.7% -5.6% 14.1% -13.3% -5.6% -22.1% -6.6% -39.3% 2004-4 3.0% -1.6% -3.1% -4.7% 2.5% 2.9% -6.4% -2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 5.9% 1.7% 8.6% 2008-4 -8.4% -5.9% 0.9% 2.1% 1.7% -8.0% 0.9% 2.4% -11.4% -16.8% -11.1% 12.8% -40.5% Avg -0.84% 2.58% -2.04% -1.50% -1.01% -0.59% -3.75% 2.86% -2.32% -4.02% -2.80% 2.15% -6.62% Averages 1.6% 1.6% -2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% -1.3% 2.3% 0.1% -1.4% -0.5% 1.7% 7.6% Win% 67% 58% 50% 58% 67% 67% 42% 67% 67% 45% 67% 58% 75%